| 基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张国华,段满银,张建华,陈德刚,杨京燕. 基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统风险评估[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2009, 33(23): 1-4 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张国华 段满银 张建华 陈德刚 杨京燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家电网公司运行分公司,北京市,100052;国家知识产权局专利局,北京市,100088;华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市,102206;华北电力大学数理学院,北京市,102206 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，北京市教育委员会共建项目建设计划资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 在所提出的风险评估模型中,将线路的故障可能性看做随机模糊数,基于证据理论构造了架空线路的故障可能性模型,可更好地反映外部环境对线路故障可能性的影响;并采用效用函数度量电力系统元件故障损失带来的不满意程度,所给出的指标能灵敏地反映电力系统故障风险的变化趋势,符合电网运行实际;最后以北京电网为例,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 风险评价 证据理论 随机模糊数 故障严重程度 效用理论 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-04-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-11-24 |
Power System Risk Assessment Based on the Evidence Theory and Utility Theory |
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| ZHANG Guohu,DUAN Manyin,ZHANG Jianhu,CHEN Degang,YANG Jingyan. Power System Risk Assessment Based on the Evidence Theory and Utility Theory[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2009, 33(23): 1-4 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Guohu DUAN Manyin ZHANG Jianhu CHEN Degang YANG Jingyan |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Guohua1,DUAN Manyin2,ZHANG Jianhua3,CHEN Degang3,YANG Jingyan3(1.State Grid Operation Company,Beijing 100052,China,2.State Intellectual Property Office of the PRC,Beijing 100088,3.North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China) |
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| Abstract: | In the proposed risk assessment model,the failure possibility of overhead lines is regarded as a random fuzzy variable.Based on the evidence theory,the failure possibility model for overhead lines is constructed which can better reflect the effect of the surroundings on the failure possibility.In the risk assessment model,the utility function is used to measure the degree of dissatisfaction induced by failures and the proposed risk indices can sensitively reflect the trends of risk indices and accord with t... |
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| Keywords: | risk assessment evidence theory random fuzzy variable severity of failures utility theory |
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