| 提高电网短期负荷预测精度的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟惠锋. 提高电网短期负荷预测精度的研究[J]. 广东电力, 2011, 24(6): 97-100 |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟惠锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东电网公司珠海供电局,广东,珠海,519000 |
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| 摘 要： | 以广东珠海电网为例,对负荷特性、经济发展特点、气候变化、预测技术等影响负荷预测的因素进行分析,提出提高电网短期负荷预测精度的措施:建立和完善典型日负荷样本数据库;特殊事件造成负荷较大变化时进行人工干预;合理做好负荷日的类型分析;采用扩展短期负荷预测方法进行明日负荷预测;建立气象负荷数据源预测模型.这些措施在珠海电网中应...
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统规划 短期负荷预测精度 扩展短期负荷预测方法 负荷特性 预测模型 |
Study on Promoting Short-term Load Forecasting Accuracy of Power Grid |
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| ZHONG Hui-feng. Study on Promoting Short-term Load Forecasting Accuracy of Power Grid[J]. Guangdong Electric Power, 2011, 24(6): 97-100 |
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| Authors: | ZHONG Hui-feng |
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| Affiliation: | ZHONG Hui-feng(Zhuhai Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Corporation,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519000,China) |
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| Abstract: | The article takes Zhuhai power grid as an example and analyzes factors influencing load forecasting such as load characteristic,characteristics of economy development,climate change and forecasting technology.Measures for promoting short-term load forecasting accuracy of power grid are put forward in this paper as follows:establishment and perfection of database of load samplings in typical days;manual intervention in case of great load changes due to special events;reasonable analysis on daily load types;adoption of extended short-term load forecasting method for load forecasting in future and establishment of forecasting model of weather load data sources.Application of these measures in Zhuhai power grid turns out to be effective. |
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| Keywords: | power system planning short-term load forecasting accuracy extended short-term load forecasting method load characteristic forecasting model |
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