南昌市主要气候要素变化特征及其预测

基于南昌市1951~2015年逐月降水和平均气温数据,借助不均匀系数、集中度分析降水年内分配特征,采用5年滑动均值法、Mann-Kendall分析法、Morlet小波变换法及R/S分析法等探讨了降水量和气温的趋势性、突变性和周期性,并预测了序列未来的演变趋势。结果表明,南昌市年降水量年内呈单峰分布,最大降水量出现在5月30日,总体呈不显著增加变化,1955、1992、2000年发生突变,存在22年的主周期及4年的次周期,降水未来将持续增加;南昌市年内温差大,月平均气温极值比为5.57,年平均气温总体呈显著上升变化,在1997年发生突变,存在23年的主周期及17、4年的次周期,年平均气温未来将呈继续显著上升变化趋势。

Study and Forecasting Change Characteristics of Main Climatic Factors in Nanchang City

Based on the data of monthly average temperature and precipitation from 1951 to 2015 in Nanchang City, this paper analyzed the annual distribution characteristics of precipitation with non-uniformity coefficient and concentration degree. Five-years moving average method, Mann-Kendall analysis method, Morlet wavelet analysis, and R/S analysis method were used to discuss the tendency, mutability and periodicity of temperature and precipitation and forecast the future change trend. The results show that the intra-annual distribution process of precipitation is single peak, the largest precipitation occurred on May 30th; annual precipitation had insignificant upward trend in the past 65 years; there were sudden change points in 1955, 1992 and 2000; annual precipitation exists a main periodicity of 22a, a secondary periodicity of 4a, and it will still be a insignificant upward trend in the future. The difference of monthly average temperatures is large, the ratio of maximal monthly average temperature and minimum is 5.57; annual average temperature had a significant upward trend during the past 65 years; catastrophe points existed in 1997; there was a main periodicity of 23a, two secondary periodicity of 17a and 4a, and it will still be a significant upward trend in the future.