灰色理论在铁路煤炭运输量预测中的应用

铁路部门在编制货物运输计划时收集的资料和信息往往是不完全和不对称的,很多数据需要通过科学的理论去建立合理的模型来推算,本文采用灰色理论建模,以铁路煤炭运输量预测为例详细说明了灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的建模过程。该模型对于预测城市总体规划中人口、交通运输发展、公共交通以及客货运量等具有普遍指导意义。

Application of grey theory to predict railway transportation quantity

The material and information collected from the cargo transportation planning by the railway department are usually not completed and dissymmetrical.Many data are needed to be calculated by rational models on the basis of the scientific theory.The paper had set up a module with the gray theory.Tacking the railway coal transportation quantity prediction as an example,the paper detail explained the modeling of the gray prediction model GM(1.1).The model has a universal guidance to predict the population,traffic and transportation development,public transportation and passenger and cargo transportation quantity for the urban planning.