| 基于社会经济指标影响的电力系统月度负荷组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘志坚,杨志华,黄蓉. 基于社会经济指标影响的电力系统月度负荷组合预测模型[J]. 昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 0(5): 58-64 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘志坚 杨志华 黄蓉 |
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| 作者单位： | 昆明理工大学 电力工程学院,云南 昆明,650500 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，云南省自然科学基金项目，昆明理工大学人才引培项目(2011-03)． |
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| 摘 要： | 电力负荷受到多种因素影响,用负荷历史数据进行负荷预测结果往往不准确.考虑社会经济指标的影响,采用无偏灰色预测模型与偏最小二乘模型相结合的方法对月度电力负荷进行预测.首先通过无偏灰色理论的方法预测各社会经济指标,然后针对社会经济指标与电力月度负荷的变化特点进行偏最小二乘建模.最后拟合出负荷与各指标之间的线性关系式.实例证明,该组合预测模型具有较高精度.
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| 关 键 词： | 月度负荷预测 偏最小二乘 无偏灰色模型 社会经济指标 |
Monthly Load Combined Forecasting Model of Power System Based on Influences of Social Economic Factors |
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| LIU Zhi-jian,YANG Zhi-hua,HUANG Rong. Monthly Load Combined Forecasting Model of Power System Based on Influences of Social Economic Factors[J]. Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2014, 0(5): 58-64 |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhi-jian YANG Zhi-hua HUANG Rong |
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| Affiliation: | ( Faculty of Electric Power Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China) |
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| Abstract: | Power load is affected by a variety of factors, therefore using only historical value of power load to forecast it is often inaccurate. Considering the influences of the social economic indicators, the monthly power system load is forecasted by combining the two methods of unbiased grey forecasting model and the partial least squares （PLS） model. Firstly, each social economic indicator is predicted with the method of unbiased grey theo- ry. Then, the model of partial least squares is founded with due consideration to the characteristics of the social economic indicators and the monthly load change. Finally the linear relation between the load and the indicators is fitted out. An example proves that the combined forecasting model has high accuracy |
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| Keywords: | monthly load forecasting partial least squares unbiased grey model social economic indicators |
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