城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性评价

基于脆弱性概念阐述暴雨洪涝灾害下的城市脆弱性内涵,从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个方面构建了包含11个指标的城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性综合评价指标体系和评价模型,并确定脆弱性等级划分标准。以南京市秦淮区为例,针对100年一遇设计暴雨情景,基于MIKE一二维耦合模型,定量分析指标值,采用构建的评价模型计算了城市暴雨洪涝灾害脆弱性指数,对极端暴雨情景下研究区的脆弱性进行了评价,绘制了研究区脆弱性空间分布图,分析了脆弱性分布特点与成因。结果表明:MIKE一二维耦合模型可用于暴露度指标中最大淹没水深和时段末淹没水深的获取；河流沿岸且地势较为平坦的区域,交通路网中的低洼区域、立交桥下易形成积水的区域,人口稠密、GDP产值高、暴露程度较高的居民住宅区与企业中心等区域脆弱性较高。

Assessment of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters

The connotation of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters is expounded based on the concept of vulnerability. A comprehensive evaluation index system and an evaluation model for urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters are constructed from three aspects: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability, including 11 indicators. The criteria for dividing vulnerability levels are determined. Taking Qinhuai District of Nanjing City as an example, for a 100-year return period design rainstorm scenario, quantitative analysis of the indicator values is conducted using the MIKE coupled one- and two-dimensional model. The index of urban vulnerability to heavy rain and flood disasters is evaluated using the constructed evaluation model. A spatial distribution map of vulnerability in the research area is drawn, and the characteristics and causes of vulnerability distribution are analyzed. The results show that the MIKE coupled one- and two-dimensional model can be used to obtain the maximum inundation depth and end-of-period inundation depth in the exposure index. Areas along rivers with relatively flat terrain, low-lying areas in the transportation network, areas prone to water accumulation under overpasses, densely populated areas, high GDP value areas, and areas with high exposure levels such as residential areas and business centers exhibit higher vulnerability.