| 基于BP神经网络马尔科夫模型的径流量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王义民,于兴杰,畅建霞,黄强.基于BP神经网络马尔科夫模型的径流量预测[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2008,41(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王义民 于兴杰 畅建霞 黄强 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西,西安,710048 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金,国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 讨论了马尔科夫链状态划分的黄金分割率法和"马氏性"检验法,并针对BP神经网络预测和马尔科夫预测的优缺点,提出了BP神经网络与马尔科夫相耦合的BP神经网络马尔科夫模型,以石泉水库年入库径流量为例,验证了该方法的可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | BP神经网络 马尔柯夫预测 黄金分割率 “马氏性”检验 径流量预测 |
Prediction of runoff based on BP neural network and Markov model |
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| WANG Yimin,YU Xingjie,CHANG Jianxia,HUANG Qiang.Prediction of runoff based on BP neural network and Markov model[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2008,41(5). |
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| Authors: | WANG Yimin YU Xingjie CHANG Jianxia HUANG Qiang |
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| Abstract: | This paper discusses the methods of dividing of state space with Golden Ratio and Markov property test.Aiming at the advantages and disadvantages of BP neural network and Markov prediction model,a new method is presented based on analyzing BP neural network theory and Markov theory.This prediction model is identified by taking prediction of annual runoff variation into the Shiquan Reservoir. |
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| Keywords: | BP neural network Markov prediction golden ratio Markov property test BP-Markov model prediction of runoff |
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