| 建筑物火灾蔓延机理及概率模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 辛晶,黄崇福.建筑物火灾蔓延机理及概率模型[J].消防科学与技术,2011,30(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 辛晶 黄崇福 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京,100875;中国人民武装警察部队学院,河北,廊坊,065000
2. 北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京,100875 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先利用事件树分析方法构建建筑物火灾增长场景,结合火灾统计结果得到建筑物火灾发展为充分发展火灾的概率;然后根据正态分布理论确定建筑物边界构件失效的概率;进而建立建筑物火灾蔓延的概率模型.运用该模型计算了某三层公窝楼的火灾蔓延概率.结果表明,该模型既可用于计算建筑物内人员生命风险和财产损失,也可指导消防部门设计建筑物的防火策略.
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| 关 键 词： | 火灾蔓延 概率模型 事件树分析 正态分布 建筑防火 |
Mechanisms and probability model of buildings fire spread |
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| XIN Jing,HUANG Chong-fu.Mechanisms and probability model of buildings fire spread[J].Fire Science and Technology,2011,30(10). |
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| Authors: | XIN Jing HUANG Chong-fu |
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| Affiliation: | XIN Jing1,2,HUANG Chong-fu1 (1.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China,2.Chinese People's Armed Police Forces Academy,Hebei Langfang 065000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Fire growth scenarios were set up based on event tree analysis and the probability of an ignition developing into a fully developed fire was obtained from fire statistics.The probability of failure across boundary elements was calculated by making use of standard normal distribution.The probability model of building fire spread was built.A detailed example of calculation of fire spread in a three-story apartment building was presented.The results of a fire spread model can be used to calculate the expected ... |
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| Keywords: | fire spread probability model event tree analysis normal distribution building fire prevention |
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