南堡油田M区月度产油量预测方法

月度产量的预测对合理安排油田生产运行有着重要意义,而目前的预测方法存在着需要数据点过多,对产量上升阶段预测精度不够等问题。应用经验法、统计法、移动平均法等多种方法,对南堡油田M区月度产量进行预测,并对各种计算方法所得结果的相对误差进行了计算和分析;依据不同方法的精度,对不同的计算结果进行赋值;运用权重系数法对油田月度产量进行了综合计算。计算结果显示,权重系数法预测的平均相对误差为9.37%,能有效提高其他各种单一方法的预测精度。

Forecasting method of monthly production of M block in Nanpu Oilfield

The monthly production forecast is important to arrange the oilfield production,but the current methods have some shortcomings,such as a lot of data are needed,the accuracy is not high in the yield stage.The thumb rules,statistical method,moving average were used to forecast the monthly production of Nanpu Oilfield.The proportional error of different methods was calculated and analyzed.According to the accuracy degree of different methods,values for computation were assigned.The weight coefficient method was used to calculate the monthly production of Nanpu oilfield.The result showed that the average relative error of weight coefficient method was 9.37% to enhance the forecast accuracy of other single method.