基于事故树分析的固体推进剂捏合工序燃爆事故成因研究

为了研究固体推进剂捏合工序燃爆事故成因,通过现场调研及以往事故案例分析,针对捏合工序构建了燃爆事故树,对燃爆事故树进行定性、定量分析.结果表明:导致顶上事件发生的最小割集有81个,最小径集有5个,且每个最小径集中包含的基本事件均较多,即捏合工序的安全程度较低.同时计算出各个基本事件的结构重要度,通过结构重要度排序得到导致捏合工序燃爆事故发生的主要基本事件有:热分解产生气泡、混入硬性杂质、含水率过低等.在事故树分析的基础上,有针对性地提出了合理提高捏合工序本质安全程度的改进措施,可为类似生产线的安全管理提供理论依据.

Genesis Study on Blast Accident in Kneading Process of Solid Propellant Based on Fault Tree Analysis

To study the blast accident in the kneading process of solid propellant,through the field investigation and past case analysis,a fault tree was established for the kneading process.Then by qualitative and quantitative analysis,we have got 81 minimal cut sets and 5 minimal path sets that causing the top event and each minimal path sets contains a relatively large number of basic events that means this system is less security.By calculating and analyzing the structure importance of fault tree,the main factors leading to the occurrence of blast accidents in the kneading process were gained as thermal decomposition bubbles,and entrained hardness impurities and low moisture content.Finally,according to the results of fault tree analysis,the corresponding improvement measures to enhance the safety of kneading process were put forward,so as to provide a theoretical basis of security management for the similar production line.