| BP网络的城市时用水量预测组合模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈卫,陆健,吴志成. BP网络的城市时用水量预测组合模型[J]. 哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2009, 41(6): 197-200 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈卫 陆健 吴志成 |
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| 作者单位： | 陈卫,CHEN Wei(河海大学,环境科学与工程学院,南京,210098);陆健,LU Jian(江苏省工程咨询中心,南京,210003);吴志成,WU Zhi-cheng(南京市自来水总公司,南京,210002) |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为建立起城市用水量与其影响因素间的预测模型,以预测的城市用水量趋于合理,针对城市时用水量的特点及影响因素,在考虑充分利用各因素历史观测数据的基础上,利用BP神经网络建立了城市时用水量的时间序列预测与解释性预测组合模型,并对南京市的时用水量进行了预测.预测结果与实际情况具有很好的一致性,预测误差小,能满足供水系统调度的实际需要.可见,本预测组合模型是合理的,为城市时用水量预测提供了一种可行方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 时用水量 组合模型 预测 BP神经网络 |
Combined forecast model of urban hourly water consumption based on BP neural network |
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| CHEN Wei,LU Jian,WU Zhi-cheng. Combined forecast model of urban hourly water consumption based on BP neural network[J]. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, 2009, 41(6): 197-200 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Wei LU Jian WU Zhi-cheng |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China,2. Jiansu Engineering Consulting Center,Nanjing 210003,China;3. Nanjing Water Supply General Company,Nanjing 210002,China) |
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| Abstract: | To establish the relationship between urban water consumption and its affecting factors,according to the characteristics of urban hourly water consumption,a combined urban hourly water consumption prediction model has been developed based on BP neural network. The model has been performed on the historical observation data of Nanjing city. The results show that the forecast error of the developed model is small and meets the practical requirement of water-supply dispatch system. It can be concluded that this model is reasonable and feasible for the forecast of urban hourly water consumption. |
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| Keywords: | urban hourly water consumption combined model forecasting BP neural network |
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