| 研制阶段的成败型产品可靠性Bayes评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晗,郭波.研制阶段的成败型产品可靠性Bayes评估[J].电子产品可靠性与环境试验,2006,24(5):25-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晗 郭波 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南,长沙,410073;国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南,长沙,410073 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了研制阶段的成败型产品可靠性的Bayes评估问题。针对当前可靠性评估方法中，经典统计方法无法利用历史信息，而传统Bayes方法又存在对历史信息与现场信息不加区分的缺陷，提出了研制阶段成败型产品可靠性评估模型。模型使用混合验前分布，并用历史样本与现场样本的拟合优度来确定混合分布中的继承因子，这样合理性就很容易得到解释。
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| 关 键 词： | 可靠性评估 贝叶斯方法 二项分布 混合验前分布 继承因子 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-5468(2006)05-0025-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年5月31日 |
Bayes Assessment for Reliability of Success or Failure Product in the Development Phases |
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| LIU Han,GUO Bo.Bayes Assessment for Reliability of Success or Failure Product in the Development Phases[J].Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing,2006,24(5):25-29. |
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| Authors: | LIU Han GUO Bo |
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| Abstract: | This paper investigates Bayes assessment for reliability of success or failure product in the development phases. The classic statistics method can not make use of the history test information and the traditional Bayes method can not differentiate between the history test information and the current information. In order to overcome the limitation of the traditional method, a Bayes assessment model for reliability of success or failure product in the development phases is established. This model uses mixed prior distribution, and determines the inheritance factor by using chi-square goodness of fit. Its rationality is easy to comprehended. |
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| Keywords: | reliability assessment Bayes method binomial distribution mixed prior distribution inheritance factor |
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