A System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Temporary Water Transfers in the Mexican Conchos Basin |
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Authors: | Jesús R Gastélum Juan B Valdés Steven Stewart |
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Affiliation: | (1) Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA;(2) California Water Institute and the Department of Agricultural Economics, California State University, Fresno, CA 93740, USA |
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Abstract: | The flows of the Rio Conchos are of vital economic importance not only to the agricultural sector in the Mexican side of the
Rio Grande basin but also for meeting Mexico’s obligation to deliver water to the United States. During the previous decade,
a severe drought dramatically decreased the basin’s runoff, generating serious economic, social, and political problems in
both countries. A System Dynamics (SD) model designed to serve as a decision-support system (DSS) for water managers has been
created. This DSS is a lumped semi-distributed model operating on a monthly basis. This DSS incorporates the most important
elements of the Conchos basin’s water resources system: main rivers, irrigation distribution canals, reservoirs, aquifer,
and the three Irrigation Districts. The DSS simulates different short and long term scenarios combining inside and outside
Irrigation Districts (IDs). Also, different short scenarios are implemented to investigate the benefits of water transfer
from México to the United States. This study has prompted awareness with regards to the degree of complexity and uncertainty
of the water right allocation process to different economic variables such as crop yield, production costs, crop prices, subsidies,
and water distribution efficiencies. |
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