基于灰色模型的艇载导弹测试电源系统故障预测

针对艇载导弹测试电源系统故障分析问题，提出一种基于灰色模型的艇载导弹测试电源系统故障预测方法。为了提高导弹地面电源的工作效率，从分析历史检测数据入手，采用灰色理论的分析方法，建立了适合导弹地面电源故障时间预测的 GM(1,1)模型，详细阐述了模型检验的方法，并通过实例清晰地说明了模型运用和检验的具体步骤。数据检验结果表明：该故障预测模型不但能够较好地模拟历史灾变数据，而且其预测的故障时间与实际情况相吻合。

Submarine Missile Test Power System Failure Forecast Based on Grey Model

For submarine missile test power system fault analysis, a missile test power system fault prediction method based on grey model was put forward. In order to raise missile ground power working efficiency, the suitable missile ground power failure forecast model of GM(1,1) was established by analyzing the record test data and using gray theory. And the check method of the model was detailed explained. The examples clearly show the model use steps. The data test show that the fault forecast model can simulate history disaster record data accurately, and the forecast fault time is the same as the actual situation.