| 广深铁路客流量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭寒英.广深铁路客流量预测研究[J].西华大学学报(自然科学版),2011,30(2):5-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭寒英 |
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| 作者单位： | 西华大学交通与汽车工程学院,四川成都,610039 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了考查广深铁路客流变化规律,设计未来年度列车开行方案,本文首先运用灰色预测模型,分析并预测了广深铁路沿线地区GDP、人口和就业人数,然后运用四阶段法,在客流特征调查分析基础上,预测了OD小区客流数量、客流分布数量、铁路客流分担量及客流特征,最终确定了预测年度(2020和2030)的客流数量,为该线列车开行方案等客运产品设计提供了基础数据。
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| 关 键 词： | 广深铁路 客流预测 灰色预测 四阶段法 |
Passenger Flow Forecast for Guangzhou-shenzhen Railway |
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| GUO Han-ying.Passenger Flow Forecast for Guangzhou-shenzhen Railway[J].Journal of Xihua University:Natural Science Edition,2011,30(2):5-7. |
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| Authors: | GUO Han-ying |
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| Affiliation: | GUO Han-ying (School of Transportation and Automotive Engineering,Xihua University,Chengdu 610039 China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to get passenger flow size and characteristics in Guangzhou-Shenzhen railway,the paper studies passenger flow forecast issue.Firstly,the Gray Forecast Model is applied to the calculation of GDP,population and employee number in traffic district along the railway.Secondly,after careful analysis of the four-step traffic forecast method,the author calculates the amount of passenger flow generation and attraction,passenger flow distribution and passenger flow proportion.At last,the forecast result of p... |
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| Keywords: | guangzhou-shenzhen railway passenger flow forecast gray forecast method four-step traffic forecast method |
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