基于实物期权的矿业投资时机分析

可延迟的矿业投资相当于一个买入期权。基于改进的最佳投资时机决策模型，实证分析了国外某锌矿投资的临界价格和临界价值。结果表明：锌矿投资的临界价格p*=2 069.69美元，临界价值V(P*)=348.60美元，在2010年对该锌矿进行投资是可行的；锌矿投资的临界价格对矿产品生产成本C的变化最为敏感，生产成本降低1%，投资临界价格降低0.772 1%；临界价值对便利收益δ的变化最为敏感，便利收益降低1%，则临界价值提高1.329 7%。

Analysis of Mining Investment Timing based on the Real Option

The mining investment that can be delayed is equal to a real option.Based on the improved decision-making model of best mining investment timing，the critical price and value of zinc mine investment at abroad were analyzed.The results showed that the critical price of the zinc mining investment P* is $2 069.69 and the critical value V(P*) is $348.60.It is feasible to invest the zinc mining project in 2010.The critical price of the zinc mining is most sensitive to production cost C.If the production cost C decreases by 1%，the critical price will be reduced by 0.772 1%.The critical value is most sensitive to convenience yield δ.If the convenience yield decreases by 1%，the critical value will be increased by 1.329 7%.