基于群体特性的建筑物震害预测方法

为了在震害预测工作中能够挖掘大数据下的群体特性并用适当的参数进行表征,首先,定义群体特性参数并提出了震害累计概率数学模型;其次,通过对样本单元数据的回归分析及迭代计算,在一定精度范围内求得反映样本单元群体特性的参数均值,并通过样本震害结果进行可靠性检验;最后,把这些参数用于目标单元震害模型计算,从而得到相应的震害预测结果.同时,通过一个实例验证了该方法的可靠性与可行性.

Method for Earthquake Damage Prediction of Buildings Based on Group Characteristics

In earthquake prediction work, mining group characteristics under the large data and characterizing it by some proper parameters was necessary. The authors defined the group characteristic parameters,based on which the mathematical model of seismic damage cumulative probability was proposed; Secondly, an average parameter representing sample unit group characteristics, whose reliability could be tested by being compared with the sample damage result,was obtained within a certain range precision by regression analysis and the iterative calculation of sample unit data; Finally,these parameters were used in the calculation of target cell damage model,and the corresponding predictive result was obtained. Meanwhile,the authors verified the reliability and feasibility of the method by an instance.