Future trends of building heating and cooling loads and energy consumption in different climates

Principal component analysis of dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was considered, and a new climatic index (principal component Z) determined for two emissions scenarios – low and medium forcing. Multi-year building energy simulations were conducted for generic air-conditioned office buildings in Harbin, Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming and Hong Kong, representing the five major architectural climates in China. Regression models were developed to correlate the simulated monthly heating and cooling loads and building energy use with the corresponding Z. The coefficient of determination (R²) was largely within 0.78–0.99, indicating strong correlation. A decreasing trend of heating load and an increasing trend of cooling load due to climate change in future years were observed. For low forcing, the overall impact on the total building energy use would vary from 4.2% reduction in severe cold Harbin (heating-dominated) in the north to 4.3% increase in subtropical Hong Kong (cooling-dominated) in the south. In Beijing and Shanghai where heating and cooling are both important, the average annual building energy use in 2001–2100 would only be about 0.8% and 0.7% higher than that in 1971–2000, respectively.