区域定量风险评价方法及其在城市重大危险源安全规划中的应用

介绍了区域定量风险评价的基本原理和评价指标，建立了基于网格差分的风险计算模型，给出了定量风险评价的程序，开发了个人风险的计算软件，提出了区域定量风险评价方法，并在某油气库区风险评价与安全规划中实际应用。通过分析计算，给出了该区域的个人风险等值线分布图和社会风险（F-N）曲线。结果表明，由于该地区液化石油气储量大，事故后果严重，且库区离居民区较近，周边企业较多，人口密集，使得个人风险和社会风险均超出了推荐标准的要求。该方法为进行城市重大危险源的安全规划提供了基础理论和技术方法，对进行城市土地使用及其他灾害领

Quantitative Area Risk Assessment Method and its Application in Land Use Safety Planning for Major Hazard Installations

Quantitative area risk assessment(QARA) method and its subsequent application in land safety planning for major hazard installations was initially studied in this paper.The basic principle and indicators of QARA were briefly introduced.Calculating models for individual and social risk,procedure for assessment as well as calculating software were developed.The developed method was applied to one oil and gas storage area.Individual risk contour and social risk F-N curve were established by the developed calculating software.The results show that the individual risk and social risk of the storage area are both beyond the allowed risk standards due to huge reserves of LPG and the high people density.The method shows theoretical and practical value in land use safety planning for major hazard installations and also for other kinds of disasters.