乌鲁木齐市塑料垃圾年产量预测及影响因素分析

基于2008-2019年来乌鲁木齐市塑料垃圾在生活垃圾中的占比、生活垃圾清运量以及社会经济发展的相关数据，运用线性回归方程模型、ARIMA模型和灰色预测模型对乌鲁木齐市的塑料垃圾年产量进行预测，再用灰色关联度模型确定出主要的影响因素。结果表明，乌鲁木齐市塑料垃圾年产量呈线性增长趋势，由2008年的4.75×10⁴ t增长到2018年的35.14×10⁴ t；从单因素来看人均可支配收入对塑料垃圾产量的影响最大，总体来看城市人口对塑料垃圾产量影响最大，而环境建设水平则最小；通过对比，ARIMA模型是预测乌鲁木齐市塑料垃圾年产量的最优模型；预测结果表明预计到2025年、2035年和2050年乌鲁木齐市塑料垃圾年产量将分别达到54.4×10⁴、82.63×10⁴、124.91×10⁴ t。

Prediction of annual output of plastic waste in urumqi city and analysis of influence factors

This study was based on the data related to the proportion of plastic waste in municipal solid waste， the delivering quantity of municipal solid waste， and the data of social and economic development in Urumqi City from 2008 to 2019. The annual output of plastic waste in Urumqi was analyzed using the multiple linear regression equation model， ARIMA model， and gray model， and the gray correlation model was used to distinguish the main influence factors. The results indicated that the annual output of plastic waste in Urumqi City exhibited a linear growing trend from 4.75×10? t in 2008 to 35.14×10? t in 2018. The analysis results of influence factors indicated that the per capital disposable income had the greatest impact on the annual output of plastic waste. On the other hand， the urban population generated the greatest impact on the generation of plastic waste when the level of environmental construction was the smallest. The ARIMA model was considered to be the best model to predict the annual output of plastic waste in Urumqi City. The prediction results indicated that the annual output of plastic waste in Urumqi City was going to reach 54.4×10? t， 82.63×10? t， and 124.91×10? t by 2025， 2030， and 2050， respectively. This may bring about some new challenges to the prevention and control of plastic waste.