临线堆载影响下高铁路基长期沉降预测方法

高铁对变形十分敏感,而铁道的临线区域又不可避免地会遭遇到土体等堆载的作用,因此工程中十分关注临线堆载下铁路路基变形的情况和趋势。通常采取的办法是对特定监测点进行定期观测,但是这种观测仅能反映铁路当前的变形情况,无法对未来做出判断。如能基于已有数据对铁路路基未来变形进行有效的预测,提早发现铁路未来某时间将会出现的预警变形,对于高铁的安全运营管理具有重要意义。笔者等提出的蠕变沉降实用算法,可根据有限沉降数据预测未来变形,论证了使用蠕变实用算法预测高铁路基长期变形的可行性并给出了根据已有实测数据时段计算特定误差下的有效预测范围的方法。

Prediction method for long-term settlements of high-speed railway subgrade under influences of nearby loads

The long-term settlement of high-speed railway subgrade usually occurs under the influences of the nearby loads, and it will result in unsafety of the high-speed running trains. A practical computation method for creep is proposed by Yao et al, and it can predict the future deformation according to the limited settlement data. Taking the simulating data from the ABAQUS software which can simulate the increasing subgrade settlement with time as examples, the feasibility of using the practical method for creep to predict the long-term deformation of high-speed railway subgrade is demonstrated, and the relavant method to calculate the effective range of the prediction under certain errors is also given. It is shown that by using the practical method for creep, we can accurately predict the deformation based on the existing data, and also can get the early warning deformation of the railway for the future. It is of great significance to the safe operation management of high-speed railways.