模糊数学和灰色理论综合评判效果对比

在对库车前陆盆地北带的42个圈闭进行地质综合评价时，采用多层次模糊综合评判法和单层次灰色综合评判法，采用同样的原始基础数据和权重系数确定方法，先从烃源、圈闭、储集层、保存和配套史等5个方面进行次级层次评价，再在此基础上进行综合评判。两种评判方法得到的圈闭地质综合评价相对优劣顺序存在一定的差异，但总趋势一致，评判为相对优的圈闭与实际勘探成果比较符合，说明都是有效的定量地质评价方法。在实际勘探评价中，应综合应用这两种方法以及其它一些综合评价方法，得出勘探目标合理的综合评判值。

Comparison of integrated decision results between fuzzymathematics and grey theory

When the geological integrated evaluation was conducted on the 42 traps in the north region of Kuqa Foreland basin, we employed the multi-hierarchical fuzzy integrated decision method and the single-hierarchical gray integrated decision method. By using the same original basic data and the same definition method of weight coefficients, the secondary hierarchical evaluation is at first performed on source rock, trap, reservoir bed, preservation and configuration histories, and then the integrated decision was conducted. Although there exist some differences of the relative order of trap quality from integrated decision evaluation between the two methods, their total trends are the same, and the decision results on better-quality traps are consistent with real exploration, proving they are effective quantitative geological evaluation methods. In the practical exploration evaluation, the two methods together with other integrated evaluation methods should be comprehensively applied to get the reasonable integrated decision values of exploration prospects.