适应供给侧结构性改革的中长期负荷预测拓展索洛模型研究

随着供给侧结构性改革的深入,电力需求的演变规律变得更难捕捉。传统的中长期负荷预测模型通常未考虑供给侧结构性改革因素,难以满足新形势下中长期负荷预测精度的要求。基于此,提出了一种适应供给侧结构性改革的中长期负荷拓展索洛预测模型(Supply-Side Reform-Extended Solow Regression Model, SSR-ESRM)。首先,通过对供给侧结构性改革内涵的解读,从规模、结构及效率三种效应出发,构建了量化指标体系。其次,在基本索洛模型的结构中,引入供给侧结构性改革因素对模型进行拓展,建立SSR-ESRM实现中长期负荷点预测。为反映供给侧结构性改革的不确定性,建立了系统动力学模型生成多种经济发展场景,进一步实现中长期负荷外推预测。算例分析表明,考虑供给侧结构性改革因素的SSR-ESRM预测精度较高,且对场景切换的灵敏度适中,有利于电网规划的灵活性,能够为实现电网规划提供有益的参考。

Extended Solow regression model for mid/long-term load forecasting adapted to supply-side structural reform

As the supply-side reform gets further development, the evolution of electricity demand has become less predictable. Traditional mid/long-term load forecasting models often overlook the supply-side reform factors, making it difficult to meet the requirements on the forecasting accuracy of mid/long-term load under new situation. With the aforementioned background and defect, this paper proposes a novel mid/long-term load forecasting model, named Supply-Side Reform-Extend Solow Regression Model (SSR-ESRM), to adapt to the implementation of the policy. Firstly, the quantitative indicators from scale, structure and efficiency perspective based on the connotation of the structural supply-side reform are constructed. Next, the supply-side reform indicators are introduced into the basic Solow model, extended into SSR-ESRM as underlying point forecast models. Meanwhile, to reflect the uncertainties of this policy, several economic scenarios based on system dynamics model and multiple ex-ante load forecasts are generated. It is shown that SSR-ESRM has higher forecasting accuracy and moderate sensitivity to scenario switching, which can facilitate the flexibility of power system planning and provide useful reference for realizing power grid planning. This work is supported by National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2016YFB0900101).