基于微气象监测的输电线路覆冰动态过程估计模型

导线覆冰与脱冰跳跃威胁输电线路的安全运行,因此实现线路覆冰增长与脱冰跳跃动态过程实时趋势估计,对运维检修决策有很大意义。在现有覆冰增长与脱冰跳跃的影响因素研究基础上,提出了基于微气象监测数据的输电线路覆冰及脱冰跳跃发展趋势多时间尺度动态估计模型。以新疆电网某线路运行记录为例进行了建模分析,所提模型与实际运行结果及其他方法对比测试表明,该方法可较好地估计输电线路覆冰增长及脱冰跳跃过程,实用性强,可用于输电线路覆冰及脱冰跳跃监测、越限告警,作为电网调度运行及线路运维检修决策的参考。

Dynamic ice process estimation model of transmission line based on micrometeorological monitoring

Conductor ice and ice shedding have harmful effects on the safety operation of transmission line, so real-time estimating the dynamic process of icing-growth and icing-shedding for transmission line is important for operation and maintenance decision. On the basis of influence factors analysis of ice growth and ice shedding, this paper proposes a multi-time scale estimation model of dynamic process of ice growth and ice shedding for transmission line based on the micrometeorological monitoring data. The monitoring records of a transmission line of Xinjiang power grid are taken as example for model establishing, the comparison of the test example and the real operation results and other methods indicate that the proposed method can well estimate the dynamic process of ice growth and ice shedding for transmission line. It is very practical and can be applied to the monitoring and warning systems of ice growth and ice shedding, which provides guide to the power system operation dispatching and transmission line maintenance decision. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51707018), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2017M612907), and Science and Technology Project of State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. (No. 5230DK16001P).