输电线路绕击故障概率分析及雷电预警方法

给出了输电线路雷电绕击概率在线预警方法。通过统计、计算不同地区不同电压等级线路的历史雷电绕击跳闸信息、雷电流强度、侧面落雷距离,应用二维信息扩散理论和条件概率方法建立了输电线路绕击跳闸概率计算模型。在雷电预警过程中,利用气象雷达的回波强度、回波顶高和垂直积累液态水含量数据,建立了基于反向传播神经网络的雷电流幅值预测模型,并通过雷云中心点坐标到线路的水平距离近似计算落雷侧面距离,由此应用输电线路跳闸概率模型,计算线路雷击概率,进行雷电实时预警。算例分析表明了该预警建模方法的有效性。

Analysis on Shielding Failure Rate of Power Transmission Lines and Thunder and Lightning Warning Method

This paper proposes online warning method for thunder and lightning shielding failure rate of power transmission lines.By statistics and calculation,it acquires thunder and lightning shielding failure trip information,lightning current in-tensity and side thunderclap distance of different voltage classes lines in different regions.Meanwhile,by using 2D informa-tion diffusion theory and conditional probability method,it establishes calculation model for power transmission line shiel-ding failure trip rate.In progress of lightning warning,it uses echo intensity,echo top height and vertical accumulating liq-uid water content of meteorological radar to build a forecast model for lightning current amplitude based on back-propaga-tion neural networks.In addition,by horizontal distance from coordinates of thundercloud center to transmission lines,it approximatively calculates side thunderclap distance from which it applies power transmission trip rate model to calculate lightning stroke rate and proceed real-time warning for thunder and lightning.The example analysis indicates that this warn-ing modeling method is effective.