Evaluation of the thiamine dose-response relationship for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) fry using an individual based model

Substantial natural reproduction of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) has not been achieved in the Great Lakes, except for Lake Superior and a few areas in Lake Huron, despite continued stocking efforts. Low thiamine levels in lake trout eggs, which can result in lethal and sublethal impacts (thiamine deficiency complex, TDC) on fry, may contribute to widespread recruitment failure in lake trout populations. We hypothesized that incorporation of sublethal impacts into dose-response curves would result in estimates of EC50s (median lethal concentrations) for fry greater than the estimates that rely only on acute mortality and that predation would exacerbate thiamine effects. To investigate the sublethal effects of TDC (prey capture success and predation mortality) on cohort growth and survival, we developed an individual-based model for lake trout fry. The model tracks daily activities, including consumption, respiration, growth, and mortality, of lake trout from hatch until fry reach a length of 33?mm when we assume fry feed naturally and thiamine effects are minimized. Model output with sublethal impacts resulted in an EC50 (7.3?nmol/g) that was greater than published studies that are limited to acute mortality (1.5?nmol/g). Furthermore, when we included interstitial and pelagic predation, the impact of sublethal effects shifted the EC50 values even higher (7.4–10?nmol/g). Simulation results indicate that low thiamine levels, in combination with moderate to high predation, can eliminate lake trout cohorts. Our simulations suggest that the sublethal effects of low thiamine can contribute to poor lake trout recruitment more than previously suspected.