基于ARMA模型的中国城乡收入差距的预测

随着我国经济快速增长,中国居民收入水平显著提高,但城乡收入差距水平也在不断加大,收入不均状况日益严重,引起社会的广泛关注。以我国1978-2008年的城乡人均收入差距数据为基础,根据其趋势图进行曲线拟合,然后对其残差序列建立时间序列的ARMA模型,并进行了模型参数的分析、识别、估计和检验,建立了适合我国城乡人均收入差距预测的模型。建模过程表明ARMA模型具有简单快捷,预测精度高,适应实际需要的特点;同时预测结果也说明我国城乡居民收入差距在不断扩大,国家应采取积极对策加以控制,加大农业投入,保障农民权益,进而增加农民收入,维护社会稳定。

Prediction of Chinese Urban and Rural Income Gap Based on ARMA Model

With the rapid development of the economic,the income of Chinese residents is increased significantly,however the level of urban-rural income gap has also been increasing.Income inequality is growing and it has already aroused extensive attention of the whole society.Based on the data of income gap per capita between rural and urban areas from 1978-2008 in China,it fits the regressive curve by trend graph and establishes an time series model of ARMA by the residual sequence,furthermore analysis,identificati...