基于CA-Markov模型的白马河流域景观格局分析及预测

基于ArcGIS和IDRISI软件,采用景观格局指数分析了白马河流域1984～2008年景观类型数量及空间格局的变化；并运用CA-Markov模型模拟了流域2008年的景观格局,预测了2020年的景观格局.结果表明,流域景观类型以耕地、林地、居民点及建设用地为主；1984～2008年流域耕地、林地面积减少,其他各景观类型均呈增加趋势；流域整体景观破碎度增加,斑块复杂程度提高,各景观类型的分布渐趋均匀；CA-Markov模型预测表明,2008～2020年流域均衡性持续提高,但景观破碎度有所降低.

Landscape Pattern Analysis and Prediction in Baimahe Catchment Based on CA-Markov Model

Based on ArcGIS and IDRISI, landscape pattern indices are applied to analyze the quantity and pattern change from 1984 to 2008 in Baimahe catchment. And CA-Markov model is used to simulate landscape pattern in 2008 and predict landscape pattern in 2020. The results show that farmland, forest, residential area and construction land are the dominant landscape types in Baimahe catchment; from 1984 to 2008, areas of farmland and forest decreased and areas of other landscape types increased; the degree of overall landscape fragmentation together with landscape plaques complexity increases; different landscape types is evenly distributed gradually. Prediction result of CA-Markov model shows that the distribution of landscape types still goes evenly, but the degree of landscape fragmentation decreases from 2008 to 2020.