亚太地区石油制品需求形势分析

据估算,与2001年相比,2002年亚太地区石油制品需求的增长值为215千桶/天,其中中国的需求增长量占总增长量的65%(与上年相比,中国在2002年的增长值为140千桶/天)。与此同时,尽管由于核电厂问题的影响使得日本更多的开始使用燃料油,但是,日本在石油制品方面的需求仍呈负增长,当年的需求量比起2001年又有减少,减幅达165千桶/天,这对整个亚太地区石油制品需求的增长都产生了负面影响。预计在2003年,日本石油消费市场的低迷形势将有所回升,届时其对石油制品的需求即便不会增长也将不至于继续下跌。这就使得在2003年,亚太地区对石油制品的消费需求可以有进一步增长,年增长率有望回复到相对“正常”的水平上(尽管该值仍低于常规水平),约可达到422千桶/天。从长期来说,中国和印度将成为亚太地区石油制品需求的主要增长国,在2002～2005年,2005～2010年和2010～2015年的三个时期中,他们的需求增长量将占到这一地区需求增长总量34%～37%的比例。与世界其它地区相比,过去的亚太石油消费市场对油价变动并不十分敏感,然而,现在的情况已经今非昔比。由于市场放开,这一地区的消费者远比在5至10年前更能切身的感受到油价变动所带来的影响。因此,正如人们所想象的那样,市场开放后,消费者也开始用行动来抵制高油价,即他们可

Asia-Pacific Petroleum Products Demand

Asia Pacific petroleum product demand is estimated to have increased by 215 kb/d in 2002, with China projected to account for about 65 percent of the increase (140 kb/d). Meanwhile, in spite of the fact that nuclear plant problems are helping to support fuel oil consumption, Japan continues to be a drag on overall regional demand (-165 kb/d in 2002). The Japanese market is projected to recover somewhat in 2003, and while it may not grow at least it should not continue to decline any further. This will allow the Asia Pacific region to return to more “normal”(albeit still lower than usual) growth of about 422 kb/d in 2003. In the long term China and India will be the region’s growth leaders, accounting for between 34 and 37 percent of the region’s growth over the periods 2002～2005, 2005～2010, and 2010～2015. While in the past Asia Pacific petroleum consumption has been much less sensitive to oil price swings than other areas of the world, this is no longer the case. As a result of market liberalization, the region’s consumers are much more exposed to oil price swings than they were five to ten years ago. They are reacting to relatively high prices as might be expected—by reducing consumption, thereby limiting the region’s overall demand growth.