对南水北调工程解决中国北方用水问题的分析

简要介绍了南水北调工程，分析了调水后我国北方用水情况，对今后的用水及缺水情况进行了预测。分析了预测结果表明：调水后，黄河上游（西线受水区）基本能满足正常来水年年份用水；在中等枯水年份，2030年和2050年分别缺水80亿m^3和50亿m^3。整个中线受水区2020年缺水量高达207亿m^3。淮河流域（东线受水区）基本能满足2030年水平的需水要求，但2050年将缺水20～40亿m^3；山东半岛依然为严重缺水区，缺水量达38.911亿m^3。

Analysis on Solving Issues of Water Use in the Northern China Through South North Water Transfer Project

The paper briefly introduces the South North Water Transfer Project, analyzes the water consumption in the northern China with the project and predicts the future consumption and insufficient water situation. The results show that water use in the upper Yellow River (beneficial area of the west route project) can meet the requirements in the normal year with the project and; during moderate dry year, it will be lack water 8 billion m~3 and 5 billion m~3 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. The maximum water shortage will be as high as to 20.7 billion m~3 in the whole beneficial area of the middle route project in 2020. The Huaihe River basin can meet the requirements of the level of 2030 (beneficial area of the east route project), while it will be lack water 2~4 billion m~3 in 2050 and; Shandong Peninsular still will be a severe region of water shortage and the gap is 3.891 billion m~3.