基于多场景随机规划的电力系统生产模拟方法

针对电力系统生产模拟中新能源不确定性问题,引入多场景随机规划理论,研究了含新能源电力系统的生产模拟方法。在时间尺度为周的生产模拟中,由多场景方式刻画新能源不确定性,建立随机规划数学模型模拟系统运行,并采用基于Benders分解的算法求解该模型。通过实际系统算例,计算了新能源年弃电率、火电盈余装机容量等指标,比较了不同求解方法下生产模拟的结果,研究了旋转备用率对新能源接纳能力的影响,结果表明所提出的生产模拟方法能够计算系统运行相关指标,所采用的算法相对于直接调用数学软件求解有一定的优势。另外,给出了旋转备用率与新能源弃电率、接纳电量之间的关系。

Production Simulation Method of Power System Based on Multi-Scenario Stochastic Programming

According to the uncertainty problem of renewable energy in the production simulation of power system, this paper uses the theory of multi-scenario stochastic programming to study the production simulation method for the power system with renewable energy. For the weekly production simulation, the uncertainty of renewable energy is characterized by multiple scenarios, and the stochastic programming model is established to simulate the system operation, and solved by the algorithm based on Benders decomposition. With a case for real power system, we calculate indicators such as annual spillage rate of renewable energy and thermal power surplus installed capacity, compare the results solved by different methods, and study the impact of spinning reserve ratio on the accommodation capacity of renewable energy. The results show that the proposed method can calculate the index related to the system operation, the algorithm adopted has advantages compared with the approach that using mathematical software directly. In addition, this paper presents the relationship between the spinning reserve ratio and the spillage rate as well as the accommodate energy of renewable energy.