电力负荷预测的方法研究

电力是国民经济发展的先行官。在市场经济条件下,提高电力企业的经济效益和社会效益,是电力企业经营的永恒主题。由于电力产品不能储存,且具有产、供、销同时性的特点,这决定了电力负荷预测是电力系统经济运行的前提,对保障国民经济全面、协调、可持续发展具有重要意义。该文阐述了负荷预测的基本概念和方法,并收集本地区近5年来经济发展的GDP值和供、售电量的历史数据,采用了弹性系数法、时间序列法和回归分析法对本地区未来5年的电力负荷进行预测,并且对预测结果的准确性和预测方法的优缺性进行分析对比,最后提出优选组合预测法具有较好的预测效果。

The Research of Electric Power Load Forcasting Methods

Electric Power is the basis of national economy development.In the market economy condition,it is a subject matter to improve the benefit of the electric power industry and of the society.Because electric energy can't be stored and it is produced,supplied,and sold at the same time.These determine that power load forecasting is the precondition of power system economic operation.It is importance means to ensure the national economy with comprehensive,harmonic and sustainable development.This paper describes some basic concepts and methods of power load forecasting.First,the historic data of GDP and quantity of electric energy sold in the past five years are collected in the locality.Then the power load of this area in the next five years is forecasted using flexible coefficients method,time-series method,and parameter-regression method,respectively.The precision of forecasting results is analyzed,and the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods are compared.Last,a method of combination forecasting is brought forward which has excellent result.