| 山东省电力需求预测的协整模型构建研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 于松青,林盛. 山东省电力需求预测的协整模型构建研究[J]. 电子设计工程, 2014, 0(6): 82-84 |
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| 作者姓名： | 于松青 林盛 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]山东省临清市供电公司山东聊城252600,天津300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部新世纪人才支持计划（NCET-07-0958） |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高电力需求量的预测精度,本文基于协整理论和误差修正模型,构建了山东省电力需求与国内生产总值、人口数量的预测模型,并运用该模型预测了2010-2011年山东省的电力需求量,结果表明构建的模型具有较高的准确性.
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| 关 键 词： | 电力需求 山东省 协整检验 误差修正模型 |
A research on the construction of cointegration model to forecast the electricity demand for the Shandong province |
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| YU Song-qing,LIN Sheng. A research on the construction of cointegration model to forecast the electricity demand for the Shandong province[J]. Electronic Design Engineering, 2014, 0(6): 82-84 |
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| Authors: | YU Song-qing LIN Sheng |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;The Power Company in Linqing City, Shandong Province, Liaocheng 252600, China;) |
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| Abstract: | Abstraet：In order to improve the prediction accuracy of electricity demand,this paper builds the forecasting model among electricity demand and gross domestic product,population of the Shandong Province based on cointegration theory and error correction model.And then this study uses the model to predict the 2010-2011 electricity demand in Shandong Province,the result shows that the model built has high accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | electricity demand Shandong province cointegration error correction model |
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