| 市场环境下水电站发电风险调度问题研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,纪昌明.市场环境下水电站发电风险调度问题研究[J].水力发电学报,2005,24(5):1-6,109. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李继清 张玉山 王丽萍 纪昌明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学(北京)电站设备状态监测与控制教育部重点实验室,北京,102206
2. 国务院南水北调工程建设委员会办公室,北京,100053 |
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| 基金项目： | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目（whu2005B018）,华北电力大学引进高层次人才科启基金（KH1409）,国家自然科学青年基金项目（50209011） |
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| 摘 要： | 市场环境下，研究水电站发电风险调度问题，尽可能地得到水电站的可发电量及不同电量相应的风险率，为水电公司在期货（合约）市场上签订售电合同时提供决策依据，是非常必要的。文中探讨了市场环境下水电站发电风险调度问题，建立了双风险因子的数学模型，并首次运用改进的一次二阶矩法对此模型进行解算，得到了效益与风险的定量关系。实例研究表明该模型及其解算方法是可行与有效的。
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| 关 键 词： | 水电站 发电风险调度 模型 改进一次二阶矩法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-02-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-02-11 |
Study on power generation risk dispatching of hydropower station under market environment |
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| LI Jiqing,ZHANG Yushan,WANG Liping,JI Changming.Study on power generation risk dispatching of hydropower station under market environment[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2005,24(5):1-6,109. |
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| Authors: | LI Jiqing ZHANG Yushan WANG Liping JI Changming |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Key Laboratory of Condition manitoring and Contrd for Power Plant Equipment of Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University(Beijing |
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| Abstract: | It is very important to research power generation risk dispatching of hydropower station under the condition of electricity market. Having predicted the amount of generation of hydropower stations and risk-rate corresponding to various generation, the hydropower companies can obtain the available information for reference when they make futures agreements under the electricity market. The research actuality of power generation risk dispatching of hydropower station and the model of two-risk-element by probability risk-analysis are presented and the methods of ameliorative first-order second-moment are used to solve the model. Finally, the quantificational relation between benefit and risk can be gained. The feasibility and validity of model & resolving methods are verified by the example. |
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| Keywords: | hydropower stations power generation risk dispatching model ameliorative first-order second-moment method |
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