矿业投资风险分析

本文提出了一种新的风险分析方法——方差和法。它使用三角形分布来代替各种分布。因此可简单地按有关专家的经验用最低极限值,最可能值与最高极限值三点来确定概率密度的分布特性。它可以在矿业工程经济评价初期数据资料不充分的情况下应用。

Analysis of Investment Risk in Minerals Industry

This paper outlines S. V. (sum of varience method) suing triangular distribu- tion instead of uirous distributions. Since the triangular. distribution can be simply specified in three points values: low limit, most likely value and up limit based on the experience of the specialists invalued in the analysis. We believe that the S. V. method will be widly accepted for very preliminary economic analysis of mining projects.