基于灰色预测及多目标规划模型的水资源预测及优化配置

为探讨城市水资源预测和优化配置的方法，以北京市为例，采用灰色GM（1，1）预测和多目标规划模型方法进行数学建模，以研究北京市在实现经济效益、社会效益、生态效益和环境效益最大化前提下的水资源的优化配置方案。预测结果显示，北京市2015年的水资源总量为21．4523亿m^3，再生水量为11．96亿m^3，总需水量为39．74亿m^3，仍将存在6．33亿m^3缺口，将依赖于境外调水，与北京市水资源“十二五”规划十分接近。多目标规划模型结果显示，北京市可通过增加水资源的循环利用，减少农业用水、生活用水和环境用水量，维持现有工业用水量，实现可供水量与总需水量的基本平衡，并实现城市经济效益、社会效益、生态效益、环境效益的最大化。灰色GM（1，1）预测和多目标规划模型可较好地预测城市未来供、需水状况，并进行水资源的优化配置，可用于区域水资源预测和综合规划。

Forecasting and Optimizing of Water Resources Based on Grey Prediction and Multi-objective Planning Model

To explore the methods of forecasting and optimal allocation of water resources in a city, take Beijing as an example, we use the methods of gray GM （1,1） forecasting and multi-objective planning model to build a mathematical model which is used to study the optimal allocation program of water resources on the premises of the maximizing of economic, social, eco-efficiency and environmental benefits in Beijing. Predicting results show that the total water resources is 2. 14523 billion m3 , recycled water is 1. 196 billion m3 and the total water demand is 3. 974 billion m3 of Beijing in 2015. There is a gap of 0. 633 billion m3 will continue to exist that will be dependent on diversion of outside water. Those are very near the data of ＂Twelfth five Year Plan＂ about water resources of Beijing. The results of Multi-objective programming model show that Beijing can achieve a basic balance between the total available water and demanded water to maximize the benefits of economy, society, ecology and environment, by increasing the amount of recycling water resources, reducing the amount of agricultural water, domestic water and environmental water, maintaining the existing industrial water consumption. Grey GM （ 1,1 ） prediction and multi-objective programming model can work well in the prediction of future conditions of urban water supply and demand and the optimization of allocation of water resources. It can be used for forecasting and integrated planning of regional water resources.