| 土坝滑坡风险计算方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘玉恒,麻荣永,吴彰敦. 土坝滑坡风险计算方法研究[J]. 红水河, 2001, 20(1): 29-32 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘玉恒 麻荣永 吴彰敦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河北省水利水电第二勘测设计研究院,
2. 广西大学, |
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| 摘 要： | 根据土凡运行的实际，对土凡滑坡的风险进行了定义，建立了土坝滑坡风险计算的数学模型，分析了影响土凡滑坡失稳风险的不确定性因素，采用蒙特卡罗方法计算了某水库土坝滑坡风险，结合国内外研究果以及我国工程实际，提出了土凡滑坡风险分析的容许风险标准，为现有土坟的安全评价及改找建提供了科学依据，可在实际工程中推广应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 土坝 风险计算 容许风险标准 蒙特卡罗方法 安全评价 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-408X(2001)01-0029-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000-11-27 |
Study on Calculation Method for Landslide Risk of Earth Dams |
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| LIU Yu-heng,MA Rong-yong,WU Zhang-dun. Study on Calculation Method for Landslide Risk of Earth Dams[J]. Hongshui River, 2001, 20(1): 29-32 |
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| Authors: | LIU Yu-heng MA Rong-yong WU Zhang-dun |
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| Abstract: | According to the current operating state of earth dams, landslide risk of earth dams is defined, and mathematical model for calculating landslide risk of earth dams is set up. The uncertain factors which influence the unstability risk of landslid of earth dams are analysed also. With Monte_Carlo method, the Landslide risk of one earth dam is calculated in this paper. Based on the research achievements from both domestic and abroad in engineering practice, the allowed risk standard for analysing landslide risk of earth dam is recommended which will provide scientific basis for safety evaluation, rebuild and extension of earth dams. The method can be applied to practical engineering by further improvement. |
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| Keywords: | earth dam unstability of dam slop risk calculation allowed risk standard Monte_carlo method |
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