| 经济因素对电量的影响分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩丹,张宏波,贾勇.经济因素对电量的影响分析与预测[J].吉林电力,2009,37(3):16-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩丹 张宏波 贾勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 大唐长春第二热电有限责任公司,吉林长春,130031 |
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| 摘 要： | 以某市2000-2005年上半年的GDP增长数据，第一产业、第二产业、第三产业的经济增长数据，用电量数据为基础，重点分析GDP变化和产业结构的调整与电力需求量的关系。根据电力系统中长期负荷的特点，提出了一种基于主成分分析的预测方法，通过对影响电力负荷的相关因素数据进行主成分分析，减少负荷预测系统的输入量，提高了系统预测的效率，实际应用表明该方法有效、可行。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济因素 电力负荷 主成分分析 预测 |
Analysis and Forecasting for Effect of Economic Factor on Electricity Consumption |
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| HAN Dan,ZHANG Hong-bo,JIA Yong.Analysis and Forecasting for Effect of Economic Factor on Electricity Consumption[J].Jilin Electric Power,2009,37(3):16-19. |
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| Authors: | HAN Dan ZHANG Hong-bo JIA Yong |
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| Abstract: | Based on GDP growth data, primary industry, secondary industries, the tertiary industry＇s economic growth data and electricity consumption data in the first half years of 2000- 2005 in a certain city, the relationship between changes in GDP ~ industrial structural adjustment and the demand for electricity consumption is analyzed specially. According to the characteristics of mid-long term load in power system, a forecasting method based on main component is proposed. System forecasting efficiency is improved by main component analyzing of related data that influence the power load and reducing input data. Empirical application proves that the method is effective and feasible. |
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| Keywords: | economic factors electricity load main component analysis forecasting |
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