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| 基于人工神经网络的油气产量组合预测方法 | |
| 引用本文： | 王磊,顾宏伟,姚恒申.基于人工神经网络的油气产量组合预测方法[J].新疆石油地质,2005,26(5):557-558,561. |
| 作者姓名： | 王磊 顾宏伟 姚恒申 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西南石油学院,研究生院,成都,610500 2. 中国石油,塔里木油田分公司,测井中心,新疆,库尔勒,841000 3. 西南石油学院,计算机科学学院,成都,610500 |
| 基金项目： | 油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室（西南石油学院）“应用时间序列分析提高测井解释准确率研究”（0121）资助 |
| 摘 要： | 回顾了前人关于油气产量的预测方法,概述了传统组合预测方法的基本原理,在此基础上,对组合预测方法中基于最小二乘法的最优权重确定方法进行了改进,提出基于BP神经网络模型的最优权重确定方法,并将其应用于具体实例.结果表明,基于神经网络的组合预测模型能有效地提高油气产量预测精度,是比较优越的预测方法. |
| 关 键 词： | 产量 预测 精度 神经网络 模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-3873（2005）05-0557-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-05-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-182005-07-04 |
Artificial Neural Network-Based Combination Forecast Method for Oil-Gas Production |
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| WANG Lei,GU Hong-wei,YAO Heng-shen.Artificial Neural Network-Based Combination Forecast Method for Oil-Gas Production[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2005,26(5):557-558,561. | |
| Authors: | WANG Lei GU Hong-wei YAO Heng-shen |
| Affiliation: | 1. Postgraduate School, Southwest Petroleum Institute, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China; 2. Well Log Center, Tarim Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Korla, Xinjiang 841000, China; 3. Computer Science College, Southwest Petroleum Institute, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China |
| Abstract: | The numerous existing methods for prediction of oil and gas production are reviewed, and the principle of conventional combination forecast method is explicated. The method for determining optimal weights in combination forecast based on least square method is improved. A novel method based on BP artificial neural networks is proposed, which is also applied to the case study in this paper. The results show that this novel method or model as a preferential technique can be used to effectively improve the accuracy for prediction of oil-gas production. |
| Keywords: | production prediction accuracy neural network model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |