气候变化对南京主要作物需水量的影响

采用Mann-Kendall方法计算南京1951—2005年的作物需水量,结合气象因素的变化趋势,分析气候变化对南京主要作物需水量的影响,提出应对气候变化的措施。结果表明:夏作水稻、棉花和玉米的需水量减少,主要与夏季增温不明显以及降雨增加、日照时数减少和风速显著降低有关;冬小麦和油菜需水量呈增加趋势,主要因为冬春季增温趋势率最大,日照时数减少和风速的下降不足以抵消气温升高和湿度降低的影响。认为温度变化会改变作物种植制度,可能带来作物总需水量的增加,因此实施节水灌溉非常必要,尤其是推行水稻蓄水控灌,可减少灌排定额,减小温室效应,降低气候变化对水稻生产的影响。

Impact of climate change on water requirement of main crops in Nanjing

By Combining the variation of meteorological factors, it is analyzed the impact of climate change on water requirement of main crops in Nanjing, China and it is presented some measures to address the impacts of climate change. For achieving this goal, water requirement of crops in Nanjing from 1951 to 2005 is calculated with the method of Mann-Kendall. Combining the variation of meteorological factors, the paper analyzes the impact of climate change on water requirement of main crops in Nanjing and put forward some measures to address climate change. The data show that the decrease of water requirement of summer crops, such as rice, cotton and corn, is related with the insignificant increase of summer temperature, increase of rainfall, drop of sunshine hours, and slowdown of wind speed. While the increase of water requirement of winter wheat and canola is mainly related to the highest growth rate of winter and spring temperatures, the effect of drop in sunshine hours and slowdown in wind speed is not enough to offset that of the increase in temperature and the reduction in humidity. The cropping system is affected by temperature, which may bring the increase of total crop water requirement. Thus, water-saving irrigation, especially water impoundment for controlling irrigation is necessary to reduce irrigation and drainage quota, weaken greenhouse effect and reduce the impact of climate change on the rice production.