Risk evaluation by modeling of passing behavior on two-lane rural highways

Passing maneuver on rural two-lane highways is a complex task, which has a significant effect on capacity, level of service and safety. The maneuver is conditioned on the gap between two successive vehicles on the opposing lane. The minimum time to collision, defined as the remaining gap between the passing vehicle and the oncoming vehicle at the end of the passing process, expresses a measure of the risk involved in the passing maneuver.This paper develops a model that explains the minimum time to collision. The model formulation is based on the analysis of drivers’ passing decisions on two-lane rural highways using an interactive driving simulator. The simulator enables the collection of vehicle speeds and positions for different road and traffic scenarios. In addition to the driver simulator, participants responded to a questionnaire which collected information about their socio-demographic characteristics.The composed dataset was analyzed and processed to develop a model that predicts the risk associated with the passing behavior. Tobit regression models were found to be more suitable, in comparison to ordinary least square models and Hazard-based Duration models. The explanatory variables tested represent road geometry, traffic conditions and drivers’ characteristics. It was found that while the traffic related variables had the most important effect on the measure of risk chosen, factors related to the geometric design and the driver characteristics also had a significant contribution.