基于改进云物元模型的工业园区综合能源系统规划方案评价

应用科学有效的评价方法对综合能源系统(integrated energy system, IES)的规划方案进行评价，可为其合理建设与运行提供重要保障。首先分析了双碳目标下工业园区IES的能源架构及运行模式，将其多能互补的特征与碳减排、碳交易机制有机融合，构建了涵盖经济、技术和环境三大方面的综合评价指标体系。然后，针对IES运行的不确定性问题，以云物元模型建立综合评价的基础框架并对该模型实际应用的不足进行了两点改进：一方面考虑评价者对模糊性的可接受程度对云熵参数计算方法进行优化；另一方面基于最小鉴别信息原理将决策实验室(decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory, DEMATEL)法与CRITIC法结合，解决了单一赋权方法导致的偏向性问题，得到更为合理的组合权重。最后，通过算例分析验证了所提评价方法可以有效解决传统物元评价的长板或短板效应以及系统运行不确定性带来的评价难题。

Evaluation of an integrated energy system planning scheme for an industrial park based on an improved cloud matter-element model

Applying scientific and effective evaluation methods to evaluate the planning scheme of an integrated energy system (IES) can provide a crucial guarantee for its reasonable construction and operation. First, this paper analyzes the energy architecture and operation mode of an IES in industrial parks under the dual carbon goal and constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system covering the three aspects of economy, technology and environment. This is after organically integrating its multi energy complementary characteristics with carbon emission reduction and a carbon trading mechanism. Then, given the operational uncertainty of an IES, the basic framework of comprehensive evaluation is established based on a cloud matter-element model, and two improvements are made to overcome the shortcomings of the practical application of the model. On the one hand, considering the acceptability of fuzziness by evaluators, the calculation method of cloud entropy parameters is optimized; on the other hand, based on the minimum discriminant information principle, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and CRITIC methods are combined to solve the bias problem attributable to a single weighting method, and a more sensible combination weight is obtained. Finally, an example is given to verify that the proposed evaluation method can effectively solve the evaluation problems caused by the long board or short board effect of traditional matter-element evaluation and the uncertainty of system operation.