不确定环境下工程项目改进模糊挣值法研究

为了提高传统挣值法在不确定环境下对工程项目成本进度绩效评价与预测的精度，在传统挣值法基础上引入模糊数学的理论和方法，提出一种结合风险因素的改进模糊挣值法。首先将挣值法的评价指标体系和预测指标体系进行模糊化构建，然后对构建结果采用α截集排序法进行模糊排序，从而获得对项目较高精度的成本进度绩效评价与预测结果。并通过一个算例对改进后的模糊挣值法进行演示，结果验证了所提出的不确定环境下工程项目改进模糊挣值法具有较高的可行性。

Fuzzy Earned Value under Uncertain Environment

The results of the traditional earned value are not ideal for the construction project under uncertain environment. The theories and methods of fuzzy mathematics are introduced in evaluation and prediction of the earned value method. An evaluation index system of the earned value is built in a fuzzy way. A fuzzy earned value method is presented. A practical example shows that the fuzzy earned value method is better than the traditional earned value method.