基于风险分担的高速铁路投资风险评估模型研究

高速铁路建设项目在十一五期间取得了举世瞩目的成就，高铁运营里程跃升为全球第一。但中国高速铁路依然面临完工风险、运营风险、安全风险、技术风险等投资风险，由于高铁建设项目工程复杂、资金巨大，项目面临的投资风险按照一定比例由众多项目参与方分担，所以风险分担是高铁建设项目风险管理的起点。从风险分担入手，利用多目标规划方法找到最佳风险分担方案，并同项目实际风险分担方案比较，获得高速铁路建设项目风险评价指标体系。运用层次分析法确定各指标权重，利用综合评价法得到高速铁路建设项目投资风险评估值，最终确定该项目的风险水平。

Risk Evaluation Model of High Speed Railway Based on Risk Allocation

High speed railway construction project has gotten booming development in the Eleventh five-year plan period，china become the longest operation mileage of high speed railway，But the Chinese high speed railway is still facing completion risks，such as operation risk，safety risk，technology risk，investment risk and so on. Due to project’s complexity and large capital investment，risk should share by certain proportion in numerous project participants，so that the risk allocation is start point of manage high-speed rail investment risk. Starting from risk allocation，use multiple objective programming methods to find the optimal risk allocation scheme， then compared with actual project risk allocation scheme to build up high-speed railway construction project risk evaluation index system. The method of using AHP in determining the weight of each index to get high speed railway construction project’s investment risk evaluation is proposed.