商品住宅销售量与CPI 格兰杰因果关系研究

为了探究CPI 与商品住宅销售量的关系，运用一元论方法构建CPI 与商品住宅销售量的关系模型，分别利用时差相关分析和格兰杰因果关系检验进行了实证研究。结果表明，CPI 与商品住宅销售量存在短期的负相关关系，且第t 期的商品住宅销售量与第t+2 期的CPI 负相关最为显著；CPI 为商品住宅销售量的格兰杰原因，而商品住宅销售量不是CPI 的格兰杰原因。研究结论对于判断市场走势和宏观调控效果的预期有一定的参考意义。

Granger Causality of the Commercial Residents Sales and CPI

In order to explore the relationship between CPI and the commercial residents sales，a model is constructed with the method of monism. Time-difference related analysis and Granger causality are employed. The results show that CPI is short-term negative correlation with commercial residents sales，and the most striking negative correlation exist between the first t stage of the commercial residents sales and the first t+2 stage of CPI；CPI does not granger cause the commercial residents sales；And the commercial residents sales don’t granger cause CPI. The conclusions are certain reference for judging the market trends and expecting the effect of macroeconomic regulation.