| 基于时间序列的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟海东,孙搏,司子稳,王睿智,施兰兰.基于时间序列的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法[J].工矿自动化,2010,36(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟海东 孙搏 司子稳 王睿智 施兰兰 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于矿井瓦斯浓度的变化受多种因素共同影响,矿井瓦斯涌出量预测经常出现无法获得一部分变量的情况。针对该问题,提出了一种基于时间序列的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法,详细介绍了采用时间序列AR模型对矿井瓦斯涌出量进行预测的具体实现。实验结果表明,该方法对矿井瓦斯涌出量的预测误差率为4.3%,预测比较可靠。
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| 关 键 词： | 矿井 瓦斯涌出量预测 时间序列 参数估计 AR模型 |
Prediction Method of Mine Gas Emission Based on Time Series |
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| MENG Hai-dong,SUN Bo,SI Zi-wen,WANG Rui-zhi,SHI Lan-lan.Prediction Method of Mine Gas Emission Based on Time Series[J].Industry and Automation,2010,36(12). |
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| Authors: | MENG Hai-dong SUN Bo SI Zi-wen WANG Rui-zhi SHI Lan-lan |
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| Abstract: | Because change of mine gas concentration is influenced by various factors,so prediction of mine gas emission can't get some variables.To solve the problem,the paper proposed a prediction method of mine gas emission based on time series.It introduced implementation of using AR model of time series to predict mine gas emission in details.The experiment result showed that error rate of prediction for mine gas emission with the method was 4.3% and the prediction is reliable. |
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| Keywords: | mine prediction of gas emission time series parameter estimation AR model Abstract:In order to predict development status of future safety situation of China's coal industry a prediction model of simple linear regression for annual death numbers and annual coal production in(China's) coal industry was established and the model was used to predict annual death numbers and annual coal production of China's coal industry in three years The prediction result showed that the model has certain feasibility which can provide reliable theoretical basis for predicting safety situation of China's coal industry Key words:coal industry death numbers coal production simple linear regression prediction |
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