成熟探区未发现油藏规模预测

利用油藏发现过程的不放回不等概率抽样的特点，在假设油藏总体服从巴内托分布的前提下，可以根据已发现油藏规模和发现时间的信息，采用抽样分析理论预测油藏总体。位于东营凹陷南斜坡的王家岗-八面河成藏体系勘探近40年，属于成熟探区，用该方法预测其油藏规模总体和未发现油藏的规模，结果表明，王家岗-八面河探区规模大于50储量单位的油藏资源总量为42000储量单位，未发现的17000储量单位多分布于规模小于500储量单位的油藏中。图2表1参9

Undiscovered pool sizes prediction of higher exploration degree area

The discovery process can be viewed as sampling with varied probability without replacement and the assumption that the pool population obeys Pareto law. The pool population can be estimated with the information of discovered pool sizes and their discovery times by sampling theories. The method is used in Wangjiagang Bamianhe petroleum accumulation system, which lies in the south slope of Dongying Sag and has a higher exploration degree, for predicting its pool population and undiscovered pool sizes. The result indicates that 42,000 reserves units are accumulated in pools, size more than 50 reserves unit, and 17,000 undiscovered reserves units mainly in the pools that their size,are less than 500 reserves unit.