| 基于多元门限回归模型的葛洲坝入库流量分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 祝俊,罗霄凌,鲍正风. 基于多元门限回归模型的葛洲坝入库流量分析[J]. 水科学与工程技术, 2013, 0(5): 1-3 |
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| 作者姓名： | 祝俊 罗霄凌 鲍正风 |
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| 作者单位： | 三峡梯调通信中心,湖北 宜昌,443133 |
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| 摘 要： | 葛洲坝入库流量预报是葛洲坝电站安全稳定运行和制定发电计划的关键前提．同时也是三峡一葛洲坝梯级电站优化调度的重要技术支撑。对三峡出库与葛洲坝入库之间关系和不平衡性及流量传播时间进行分析。利用多年积累的三峡出库流量资料，通过水量平衡方程和多元门限回归模型对三峡出库流量进行不平衡修正．使修正后的三峡出库与实际出库流量差值明显减小，有效提高了发电计划的制定效率。
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| 关 键 词： | 出库流量 入库流量 折算系数 不平衡修正 |
Research for the Gezhouba Inflow Forecasting |
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| ZHU Jun , LUO Xiao-ling , BAO Zheng-feng. Research for the Gezhouba Inflow Forecasting[J]. Water Sciences and Engineering Technology, 2013, 0(5): 1-3 |
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| Authors: | ZHU Jun LUO Xiao-ling BAO Zheng-feng |
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| Affiliation: | 3 (The Scheduling Communication Center of the Three Gorges, Yichang 443133, China) |
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| Abstract: | The Gezhouba inflow forecasting is the key premise of safe and reliable operation of hydropower station as well as power generation plan making. It also provides technical support for optimal scheduling of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade. According to the unbalance between the Three Gorges outflow and the Gezhouba inflow, based on the inflow data of Three Gorges dam site, we have reduced the difference between actual and theory value and improved the efficiency of power generation plan making by using the water balance equation and multi-threshold regression model. |
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| Keywords: | outflow inflow impact factor unbalance correction |
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