HCZ模型在多峰预测中的应用

在油气田开发过程中,由于新区块投产、规模化开发调整和三次采油方案的实施等诸多因素的影响,会出现双峰或多峰的产量变化模式,而传统的HCZ模型属于单峰预测模型,不能用于双峰或多峰的产量变化预测。在单峰HCZ模型的基础上,建立了适用于多峰产量变化模式的HCZ预测模型,该模型能够预测不同峰期的产量、累积产量、可采储量、峰值时间及峰值产量等指标,并进一步提出了模型常数的确定方法。应用实例表明,该多峰HCZ预测模型是实用有效的。

Application of HCZ model to predicting multiple production peaks

The HCZ model has got widespread attention and application in China and has been adopted as petroleum industry standard to measure the recoverable reserves since it was introduced to China in 1995.However, the production pattern of double or multiple production peaks may occur frequently during oil and gas field development because of putting into production of new blocks, large-scale adjustment of development strategy, tertiary oil recovery implementation and other factors. Based on the traditional HCZ model, a prediction HCZ model for multiple production peaks was founded, which can predict production, cumulative production, recoverable reserves, peak position time and peak production at different peak stages. The application of this model to the development of some oil and gas fields indicated that the new prediction HCZ model is practicable and authentic.