基于AHP先验分布融合法的岩土参数概率分布推断

在存在多个大样本先验分布和现场有限个小样本的条件下,提出了推断岩土参数概率分布的AHP先验分布融合法,探讨如何综合利用已有的经验资料并结合工程现场的试验数据来确定岩土参数的概率分布。借鉴AHP多目标决策方法的思想,并考虑各先验分布的影响因素,构造关于可信度的层次结构模型来确定各先验分布的权重并进行整体融合,进而求得融合验后分布的参数估计。研究结果表明:该方法可以增强统计决策中的稳健性,实现统计意义上概率分布类型的优化。

Probabilistic distribution of geotechnical parameters by using AHP prior distribution fusion method

The AHP(Analytic hierarchy process) prior distribution fusion method was put forward to estimate the distribution of geotechnical parameters for a small sample in the case of insufficient data by using testing data and some groups of prior distribution data(existing in history) in the same zone.Based on the AHP method and considered by the influence factor to each prior distribution between its prior data and testing data,a hiberarchy model about reliability was established to confirm the weight of every prior distribution.The results show that this method can enhance the steadiness in statistical decision-making and bring about the optimum fitting of probabilistic model of geotechnical parameters.